KAIST

< (From left) Ph.D candidate Hyemin Cho, Professor Seung Kyum Kim > 

'Green-Blue Adaptation (Climate adaptation based on green and water spaces),' which utilizes green and water spaces such as creating urban parks and restoring wetlands, is considered a representative climate adaptation strategy to reduce flood and heatwave damage in cities in the era of climate crisis. However,  A KAIST-led international research team has demonstrated for the first time with continent-scale data that such climate adaptation policies can paradoxically stimulate housing price increases and population influx, thereby worsening the housing instability of existing low-income residents.

KAIST announced on May 18th that a research team led by Professor Seung Kyum Kim of the Department of Department of AI and Futures Studies, along with researchers from Peking University and New York University Shanghai, analyzed cities in 32 African countries and empirically identified the 'Gentrification Paradox (a phenomenon where environmental improvement paradoxically leads to the displacement of  existing residents ),' showing that climate adaptation policies can increase urban resilience while simultaneously triggering social exclusion pressure.

The research team tracked changes from 2005 to 2024 targeting 5,503 administrative units within 221 urban areas in 32 African countries. By combining satellite image analysis with socio-economic data, they precisely analyzed the impacts that green-blue adaptation has had on actual cities and residents' lives.

In particular, the research team focused on the fact that climate adaptation policies affect not only environmental improvement effects but also socio-economic changes such as housing price increases and demographic shifts .

To this end, they applied the Difference-in-Differences method (a statistical technique that verifies policy effects by comparing changes before and after policy implementation), which analyzes the causal relationship of policy effects, to verify the impact of green-blue adaptation on urban changes. This study is highly significant as it is the first continent-scale analysis to identify the causal relationship between climate adaptation and gentrification across Africa.

 Areas with green–blue adaptation interventions showed an approximately 41% increase in the Composite Gentrification Index. Housing prices rose by about 13%, household consumption increased by 20.3%, and population inflows also increased significantly.. This shows that facilities established to protect citizens from the climate crisis can paradoxically act as a factor that deepens the housing instability of economically vulnerable groups  and weakens existing communities.

< Distribution of the start timing of Green-Blue Adaptation interventions by administrative unit > 

This study suggests that climate adaptation should be viewed not simply as a matter of infrastructure construction, but as a 'distribution problem' of how to allocate benefits and burdens. The research team proposed that future climate policies should not stop at expanding  green and blue infrastructure , but should be pursued alongside housing stabilization measures such as protecting land ownership rights, supplying public housing, and capturing development gains

Professor Seung Kyum Kim said, "Climate adaptation can make cities safer, but it can also increase housing prices and trigger demographic shifts that heighten housing insecurity for existing residents,” said Professor Seung Kyum Kim. “Future climate policies must consider not only environmental improvement, but also the protection of vulnerable groups, housing stability, and land tenure security."

In this study, PhD student Hyemin Cho from the KAIST Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainability, Professor Longfeng Wu from Peking University, and Professor ChengHe Guan from New York University Shanghai participated, and the research results were published in the international academic journal 'Nature Cities' on April 13.

※ Article Title: The gentrification paradox of green-blue adaptation in African cities, https://www.nature.com/articles/s44284-026-00432-0 ※ Author Information: Seung Kyum Kim (KAIST, First Author & Corresponding Author), Hyemin Cho (KAIST, Second Author), Longfeng Wu (Peking University, Third Author), ChengHe Guan (NYU Shanghai, Co-Corresponding Author)

This study was conducted with the support of the 'Development of Next-Generation Integrated Evaluation Model for AI-Based Climate-Human Interaction' project under the AI-Based Future Climate Technology Development Source Research Program supported by the Ministry of Science and ICT.